Archive for August, 2016

Why Trump Is Losing

August 13, 2016

I’ve always believed that the seeds of Trump’s running were sown at the 2011 White House Correspondents Dinner when he was absolutely roasted by both Obama and Seth Meyers (then of SNL). But, he was smart enough to realize that Obama would destroy him (if he happened to win the GOP nomination) so he went back to the big money of “The Apprentice” and his sundry other endeavors and waited until the ’16 cycle. He figured that HRC would run and knowing that she’s the only Democrat more hated by Republicans than Obama, figured he at least had a chance against her. And lo and behold, because of his fame and almost 100% name recognition, along with the total collapse of his collective opponents (Jeb Bush’s arrogance in thinking America has forgotten what his brother did to this country is breathtaking and mystifying to this writer), he was able to bloviate, bluff and bluster his way into the nomination.

But, now it’s time for the general election and this is where being a professional politician pays off in spades. Your base is pretty much locked in so the difference between winning and losing is message discipline, platform/policies, money, ground game/structure, attracting the undecideds and getting out the vote on Election Day. One has to have a reasonably thick skin, the ability to not take things personal and most of all, be able to avoid saying stupid stuff.

Political views aside, the one advantage HRC has over DJT is that she’s a professional politician through and through. Very little that happens during a campaign will catch her off-guard and even when it does, she dusts herself off and gets right back on the bucking bronco that is a presidential campaign. Case in point: look at the candidates’ very different responses to being attacked by a Gold Star parent at their respective conventions. When HRC was personally blamed by a grieving mother for the death of her son at Benghazi, she said, “I don’t hold any ill feeling for someone who in that moment may not fully recall everything that was or wasn’t said.” We all know how DJT chose to respond to the Khans.

Trump, like many powerful men who’ve never run for office before – it takes ego to run for any office but imagine the ego it takes to make your very first campaign one for the White House – doesn’t know or care about conventional wisdom when it comes to actually running for office. He’s used to telling people what to do and when that doesn’t work, he knows how to throw enough money at a problem until it goes away.

However, this is HRC’s fourth campaign – 2 NY Senate runs and her second one for the presidency – and she’s also been in politics and running for office ever since she and Bill started out in Arkansas. She’s the wily veteran boxer who’s seen it all. There’s nothing she’s going to get surprised by on the campaign trail. Debates? She is going to wipe the floor with DJT’s own words and stunning lack of knowledge of both domestic and foreign affairs. HRC knows the world, its leaders and can even pronounce their names properly. DJT knows this and that’s why he’s already hedging on committing to the three scheduled debates and saying the “election’s rigged, folks!” He’s building his excuses now so that on Election Night, he can say, “See, I told you she was going to steal this election.”

Whatever else DJT is, he’s not stupid. Just like John McCain will never publicly admit that selecting Sarah Palin as a running mate was a huge mistake, Trump will never confess to being in over his head now. But deep down inside, when it’s just him and his thoughts, I’ll bet you dollars to donuts that he thinks, “What in the world have I gotten myself into?”